Mortality from breast cancer has been no reduced in women older than 85 years.

– since 1992 the number of deaths associated with breast cancer has decreased in Spain among the patients young and middle-aged, but not so among the largest. Spanish researchers predict, also, that in the next decade will continue to decline, although more smoothly so far

Spain, January 2013.- a new study led by Spanish researchers analyzed mortality due to breast cancer in Spain in different age groups from 1981 until 2007 and establishes a valid projection until 2023.

Knowing this tendency based on age is interesting because any improvement could have important social and economic consequences in particular, in relation to the development of specific health plans.

To examine data has been used the Lee-Carter model, normally used to study the overall mortality, but rarely used for analysis due to specific causes ”, explains to SINC Alejandro Álvaro Meca, main author of the work and researcher of the Department of preventive medicine and health public of the Universidad Rey Juan Carlos de Madrid.

The results, published in the journal Public Health, corroborate the associated mortality increases with age, and to indicate how in different groups has decreased over time. The study shows an increase in mortality from breast cancer in Spain from 1981 until 1992, to descend from 1993 until 2007.

The reason may be the overall increase of mammography in women over the age of 45 years, that expands the number of early diagnosis and therefore improves survival. The new results support this assumption; There is an obvious decrease in mortality from breast cancer in women younger than 50 years ”, argue the authors.

In the future, a more mild reduction

The last step of the Lee-Carter model is to predict mortality in the future, in this case until 2023. Alvaro Mecca suggests that deaths will decrease, but that this decline will not be as pronounced as in the past.

The prediction shows that it will be done in a more gentle way. The mortality decrease for all age groups, however this decline will not be equal for all. For most young women a greater reduction can be seen with a big difference with the women of older age where an estimated a stabilization and even an increase for more advanced ages (more than 85 years) ”, says.

results are in line with other studies conducted in Spain, although there are still a few jobs that are studying mortality in individual age groups.

Although the future trend of this decline to continue, everything seems to indicate that the mortality rate is stabilizing for the women of older age ”, points Álvaro Mecca. For this reason, preventive practices for breast cancer should be specific and different depending on the age range of the patient ”, resolved.

The reason for this trend

The incidence of breast cancer has increased in all European countries in recent years, regardless of the existence of national screening programmes. However, mortality decreased annually by 1.8% from 1997 to 2006.

This trend is attributed to the practice of mammography and the implementation of effective hormonal treatments, chemotherapy and advances in radiation therapy and surgery. According to the national survey of health in 2006, 4% of women between 25 and 34 years and 19% between 35 and 44 years become biennial mammograms.

Is likely that these innovations have contributed to the improvements observed in the survival of the breast cancer in Europe, although the contribution of each factor is unknown ”, indicate the authors.

References:

Alvaro-meca A, et al.: Breast cancer mortality in Spain: Has it really declined for all age groups? ” Public Health (2012).