Paris, 12 oct (EFE).-the International Energy Agency (IEA) today revised downward its forecast on world consumption of oil between now and 2017, in part by the crisis centered in the euro zone, and considered that in that period there will be more available, production that would allow moderate price.

the increase in demand for oil in the next five years will be limited to 1.2% per year, which in 2017 will be an average of 95,68 million barrels per day, according to the IEA, which said that means 500,000 barrels less than what had been estimated makes 16 months.

economic developed countries poor prospects, but also the improvement in the energy efficiency of all economies are behind this slowdown in demand, which will mean a change in the map of the flows of the tankers.

the needs of petroleum in the Organization for cooperation and economic development (OECD) are going to continue to decline, as it already happens uninterruptedly since 2010, and that combined with the progression in the developed world will mean that from 2014 that first block of 33 countries will happen to represent less than 50% of the consumption for the first time in history overall.

another element that will contribute to modify the map of oil market is that technological advances allow an increase of crude oil production in North America, with the contribution of the tar sands and Shales. deposits

This will mean that countries that do not belong to the Organization of the petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) will increase from half its extraction capabilities between 2013 and 2017 in some 860,000 barrels a day, after the cuts suffered 100,000 barrels per day in 2011 and 400,000 in 2012.

addition, OPEC will raise its production capacity in 3.34 million barrels per day between 2011 and 2017 until 37,54 million barrels in the last fiscal year, while the demand that will be directed to you shall not exceed 31 million barrels per day within five years.

the increase of extraction in the oil cartel will be concentrated in a few countries, notably Iraq (50% of the total) and Libya.

Iraq will reach 4.8 million barrels a day by 2017, while Libya will exceed the levels prior to the war with 1.4 million in that year than in 2011.

also expect significant increases capabilities – although well below one million additional barrels a day – in the United Arab Emirates, Angola, Nigeria and Venezuela, as well as a maintenance in Saudi Arabia from levels reached in 2011.

the other side of the coin is Iran, which according to the IEA has lost a million barrels a day in its exports in the context of the international sanctions imposed to pressure him to put an end to its nuclear program military.

agency – representing a large consumer of energy in the OECD – countries assumes that the sanctions will be extended in the coming five years, and that Iran has lost 1.2 million barrels a day in 2011-2017 period

in regards to prices, the report’s authors warned that the volatility is going to continue, but also that the new scenario of lower tension between supply and demand, a barrel of crude which takes more than one year on average over 100 dollars, should lower that level from 2013 and stay at about 89 dollars in 2017. EFE