Paris, 12 oct (EFE).-der internationalen Energie Agentur (IEA) glaubt, dass weltweiten Ölnachfrage in den nächsten fünf Jahren, die zusammen eine größere Produktion mit einen Rückgang der Preis für das Barrel ermöglichen sollte, verlangsamen aber Volatilität wird, mit möglichen Höhen und tiefen bestehen bleibt.

in seiner mittelfristigen veröffentlicht heute, die IEA Oil Marktreport wesentlich ändert das Szenario, hatte in seiner letzten Ausgabe 16 Monaten, teilweise durch die Auswirkungen der Wirtschaftskrise beeinflussen vor allem den Euro Zone angesprochen und werden, die eine dauerhafte Abnahme der Trend von Erdöl in der Welt muss, entwickelt.

dieser Rückgang, verbunden mit der Steigerung der Energieeffizienz aller Volkswirtschaften führt zu den Autoren der Studie ihre Prognosen nach unten revidieren June 2011 and to expect demand for crude oil in the next five years is limited to the annual 1.2% and reaches 95,68 million barrels per day by 2017.

in practice, that means that the world will absorb 500,000 barrels per day less, but at the same time the production capacities will increase both in the Organization of petroleum exporting countries’s (OPEC), the rest of the producers, in particular North America.

less tension between supply and demand will mean an easing of prices, so the Agency – which brings together big consuming power of OECD countries – estimates that barrel, after more than one year on average over 100 dollars, should lose that level from 2013 and put at 89 dollars in 2017.

However, this is only an average that takes no account the possible ups and downs, because how strove to emphasize at press conference the Director of the IEA, Maria van der Hoeven, the volatility will persist.

Van der Hoeven, who cited as an example of the volatility the rebound of a barrel yesterday, in part by increasing tension in Syria, as well as continuous political Middle East instability and North Africa, warned that “we do not expect that these uncertainties disappear in the short term”.

the IEA predicts that with the continuation of the fall of its demand for oil, the 33 countries of the Organization for cooperation and economic development (OECD) will no longer represent less than 50% from 2014, in favour of the world developed.

according to his analysis, the OPEC will increase its capacity of production between 2011 and 2017 at 3.34 million additional barrels a day, and the major contributions will come from Iraq (50%) and Libya (one third).

on the other hand, Iran has lost a million barrels a day in exports within the framework of the international against its military nuclear program sanctions and the Agency da fact that those measures of pressure will continue, and with them the erosion of its capabilities put crude oil in the market.

another element that will contribute to modify the map of oil market is that technological advances are allowing an increase in crude oil production in North America, with the contribution of the tar sands and Shales. deposits

This will mean that countries that do not belong to the Organization of the petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) will increase half their capacities between 2013 and 2017 in some 860,000 barrels a day, after the cuts suffered by 100,000 barrels per day in 2011 and 400,000 in 2012.

that neue Produktion, die als Ausgleich der Verluste gemäß ehemalige Mitglieder der Sowjetunion wird weit kommen überwiegend aus Kanada, mit weitere 1,1 Millionen Barrel, vor allem der Sande, und Brasilien mit 800.000 Barrel pro Tag, im Wesentlichen der Ablagerungen in tiefen Gewässern. EFE