Emissions will have increased by 50% by 2050, according to the OECD

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London (Reuters) – global emissions of greenhouse gases could increase by 50% by 2050 without climate policy more ambitious, said Thursday the Organization for cooperation and development economic OECD).

Will “unless the global energy mix changes, fossil fuels provide about 85 percent of demand by 2050, which implies an increase of 50% of greenhouse emissions and a deterioration in urban air pollution”, said the OECD in its environmental perspectives to 2050.

Global economy in 2050 will be four times higher than today and the world will use about 80% more energy.

But the global energy mix not expected it to be very different from the current one, the report said.

It is expected that the fossil fuels such as oil, coal or gas will provide 85 percent of energy sources. Renewables, including biofuels, represent a 10 percent and the rest, the nuclear.

Dada such dependence on fossil fuels, is estimated that emissions of carbon dioxide for energy use increase 70 percent, said the OECD, which will help increase the average temperature worldwide between three and six degrees Celsius by 2100 – exceeding the agreed global warming limit of maximum two degrees internationally.

Global carbon dioxide emissions from energy reached a maximum of all time in 2010, 30.6 gigatons, despite the economic recession which reduced industrial production.

The cost of INACTION

The financial costs of not adopting more climate action could involve up to a 14 percent decline in global consumption per capita by 2050, according to some estimates.

The human costs would also increase as premature by exposure to pollution deaths could double to 3.6 million a year, said the OECD.

Water demand could rise 55 per cent, rising competition for supplies, which would mean that 40 percent of the global population living in areas with problems of water, while the animal and plant species would be lowered another 10 percent.

To avoid the worst effects of global warming, should begin to adopt international measures in 2012, create a global carbon market, transform the energy sector to reduce emissions and explore all advanced technologies such as energy from biomass and carbon capture.

However, a new climate agreement could not enter into force until 2020 and carbon markets would not be binding until then, making it difficult to achieve the limit of two degrees of temperature rise and forcing introduce strong emissions cuts after 2020 to compensate for the delay.

The full report is available in English at: www.oecd.org